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Originally Posted by Pell Mell
I use the Bris custom card feature and scan an average of 50 or so races per day. I look for a particular factor which takes about 10 seconds per race. Out of 50 races which would be an average of 400 or so horses I may find 2 horses with said factor. Many days there are none and some days there are 4 or 5 so I don't know the actual average but I'm guessing at 2 per day. At the end of a month there may be 40-60 plays and these average 25% or more winners at an average mutual of 10/1. So what would be the IV of my angle?  |
So, out of 400 horses per day, 2 have the factor you're referring to, which would be 1/2 of 1% (0.5%) of all the horses. 25% of the horses with the factor win, which means one winner every two days (on average) out of the 100 races screened over those two days. So, 1% of the winners are coming from 0.5% of the horses, which would be an impact value of 1.0/.5, or 2.00, meaning that horses with the factor are winning two times their "fair share" of the races.
