Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
This is good information, but it's STILL missing my point because I'm not talking about consistency, trainer, jockey, post position, layoffs, workouts, surface switches, path biases, form cycle and the endless other factors and common trips that most handicappers will also consider in their handicapping.
I am talking about things that impact the times and figures the horses themselves run that are extremely difficult to identify and measure because they are surface, race development, and "quality of horse" related.
People will often say well "this horse bounced or just went off form", but it's demonstrable that you can know which of these "supposed fast horses" will disappoint beforehand very often using qualitative indications.
Going into the Classic I in another thread I basically said that McKinzie would be a total toss for me except that it was Baffert and there was some chance he could move up a lot. By implication that means I thought the same of Axelrod and gave him WAY less of chance because it wasn't Baffert.
They were 2 of the fastest horses going in on most figures. They got buried.
I also could have told you that Mind Your Biscuits didn't class up either.
You can make some very informed estimates of current actual ability by looking at who is beating who with what trips instead of just figures.
It's lightly raced horses that are difficult to put a "quality" rating on because they don't reveal they quality until they are forced to. All you have is the speed figures they have earned to date which often do not reflect what's in the tank.
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BI don't know what you mean by saying Mind Your Biscuits did not "class up". He had been running very well in big races against some very good horses including a good 2nd to Diversify, one of the best in the country when that horse was in top form. Do you mean that he suddenly realized that "Hey, I'm in the Breeder's Cup Classic so I won't even try" He had just run a lifetime top after a long season of great campaigning and had every right to bounce.
He ran like a very tired horse. Horses don't know the class level they are racing in. They only how their speed compares to the competition and how well they are feeling that day. Anything else is anthropomorphizing.
I didn't figure West Coast would do well either. His poor figure in his last race showed he wasn't the same horse he was last year. Many people thought that it was a visually impressive performance wrote off the poor figure because it came after a layoff, but they forgot that Baffert horses usually run best after a long lay-off because he trains his horses faster and longer than other trainers.
In fact, figures are often a great indicator of when a horse will go off form. When a horse, especially an older horse, suddenly runs a big lifetime top , studies have shown that he he will often react to that effort next out. They are also excellent indicators of where a horse is in his form cycle if adjusted for pace pattern and ground loss.
