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Originally Posted by cj
Keep in mind all these figures are for the weight carried today. They will all take a hit in the BC Classic while American Pharoah will not. He carried 122, same as Classic, in the Haskell. The top 3 in the Whitney would be +2, +9, and +2 when required to tote 126.
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im only a couple years into learning handicapping but wouldnt the weights of the horses relative to what they are carrying extra mean more than just extra weight on its own? plus some of the pics i see of exercise riders look like they easily weigh in 130's
so its +2 +2 +9 but in a 10 horse field what would be a typical range of weight for horses entered? numbers i keep hearing they are 1000 pound animals but they obviously dont all weigh exactly the same
seems the 9 lb should affect a cheap claimer more than a superior athletic G1 horse but give my scenario if the 3 horses in question weights ranged from 1010-1055-1090...in my example i believe the 9 lbs should in theory affect the lighter horse more than if the heaviest horse carried the +9
im sure some will argue the most weight slows you down but i agree only if every horse would be exactly the same weight, strength, speed etc. like a controlled experiment. race horses dont fall into that category
i get the argument that 9 lbs is 5% more on top but the bottom line is the horse still has to carry their own weight so in reality the horse plus load weight only increases fraction of a percent
my question to the trainers is you know you have to add the 9 lbs for a race couple months out do you compensate by training/feeding to shave weight off the horse to counter the increase or try to build more stamina? or change nothing and let the horse take care of business?
since i dont know any of these horses weights,heres best analogy i can counter the lighter equal faster arguement
tom brady weighs 225 runs 5.28 40 time
manning weighs 235 runs 4.8
defensive lineman ndamokung suh weighs 307 pounds and runs 4.98
add a small person to each of their backs and suh will probably beat manning and likely extends his time difference over brady suh shape strength and size can handle the weight the other two are not built like him
tonalist and commissioner carried 10 and 9 more pounds than their Peter Pan race which was i believe 3/8 shorter and finished 1-2 in the belmont photo finish
danza was another horse whom i believe carried 8 more in the derby and finished third but was more from trip than weight
