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Old 09-12-2020, 07:13 PM   #8
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,155
The problem with this question is that you have to be a winning player to give a meaningful answer. We all like to convince ourselves that we are the kings of handicapping and we can beat this game, but often the year end score cards if one actually keeps one paints a different picture. If I am going to lose 10%+ on the dollar year in and year out I don't think it will make a huge difference to my bottom line if I play 5 horse fields or 12 horse fields. If I am a winning player, or approaching being a winning player then that it a whole other story. Then I need to track these bets and see if they are having a meaningful negative impact on my results or not. In theory, it makes sense that the more horses in a race for the public to make mistakes on, the more opportunity for value elsewhere. But no law says the public can't go nuts on one horse betting him to 1/5 when he is more like a 1-1 shot in your opinion. I see it all the time, unfortunately they win far more often then my predicted 50% of the time. Ultimately it is up to the player to track his results using field size as a variable. That way over time he can answer whether there is a negative impact to his results by playing short fields. I would think yes, but ultimately it is each player's results that actually matter.
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