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[classhandicapper]

IMO, everyone is making this too complicated.

1. Horses develop running styles
2. Horses have varying amounts of natural speed
3. Horses tend to only run fast enough early to secure their preferred position.
4. Connections adjust strategy to the circumstances
5. Random things like the break matter

a. Classify the horse's running style (most important)
b. Look for the fastest fractions the horse has run in recent races

At that point you should know who wants the lead and who has enough speed to get it if they try.

However, #3 is telling you that if a horse very consistently goes for the lead, he may be even faster than he has shown in his fractions in his last or even last few races. So you have to look for clues in how consistently he gets the lead, does he open up big clear leads, does he seem to get the lead without even being asked for his best, has he ever outrun other known really fast horses etc..

Over and above that, owners, trainers, and jockeys are not all dumb. They don't give a crap about fulcrum and past fractions. They are trying to win races or at least not commit suicide and cost themselves positions. So if some horses are more versatile they are going to avoid disastrous paces or take advantage when they can.

It's hard to get projections correct, but imo it was pretty obvious that MS was a fast front runner and Vekoma might take back a bit despite recently running fast fractions.