Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
I am not presenting what my experience or gut tells me. I looked at over 15 years of results where odd-on horses ran out of the top 2 spots. I found that the trifecta payoff relative to the exacta payoff was rewarded with a significantly higher payoff than the probability of the odds-on horse running 3rd. So if an exacta pays $100 and the probability of running 3rd is 50% after not running 1st or 2nd, then a fair price on the trifecta would be $200 with the odds-on horse running 3rd.
|
Yes...but how would this strategy work if you handicapped the race AHEAD of time, without knowing if the short-priced favorite would run out of the 2 top spots? Dave Schwartz's client was betting the races AHEAD of time...while your 15 year research was isolating those races where the short-priced favorite's "failure" was a foregone conclusion.
Do you think that isolating the short-priced favorite for 3rd in the trifecta is a profitable play for you going forward?
