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Thread: TimeformUS
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Old 07-08-2013, 01:04 PM   #28
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
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Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner
As with all new things there will be a steep learning curve. In trying to guess whether Timeform would be worth such effort, I scanned through their table listing results from playing the best Timeform spotlight figures on 9190 U.S. races (March 15 to June 11, 2013).

Unfortunately, while they show each horse that was bet, they only list the number of wins (29.5%) and in the money (63%) rates. If their numbers mostly pick favorites, it doesn't look good. Missing is the what the horses paid. Don't you think if they had a positive ROI for this test they would have highlighted it?

I'm a little skeptical. Is anyone using their numbers at this time?
I'd give you the numbers if I had them. I would guess they don't have a + ROI over such a huge number of races, but I don't think it was tested yet. One of the goals of the numbers is to actually tell you which horses ran fastest, not which horses are the best value. Those are two very different things.

I could probably produce a figure that would be close to a break even ROI over a very large set of races, but would win less than 10% of the time. This is not what customers want in my opinion.
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