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Originally Posted by Sinner369
These days it is all about speed.........early speed .........harness and thoroughbreds.........the only value found is betting closers..........it is almost become a lost art (finding the closing horses).
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Not to be arbitrary, but I collect on some
nice paying "speed" horses on a most regular basis...
For instance (
not trying to redboard) last nite (
Sun 7/26/09) at Mohawk, I cashed in back to back races on horses that won as the frontrunners in their respective races...8th-race-#10..Master Charge ($14.70)....& 9th race, #9- Secret Lives ($11.30).....Both of these horses were in "Form" and posessed pace numbers that were "very" advantageous...Both had shown the ability to take the lead when needing to, and yet were not driven that way in their last bunch of races....It was raining and the frontrunners were enjoying a clear and substantial advantage for most of the races up to and including those two races.....Master Charge brushed to a very quick command and said goodbye by 7+ lengths, and Secret Lives was hung out to the 3/8ths bidding and battling for the lead and yet still had the gamesness to win safely over the late charging 3/5 fave....
I am not trying to toot my horn here, but, I simply wanted to demonstrate that there are good values out there if you spend the time to look for those opportunities...Speed, despite it overuse and abuse can still be made to work for you, if you are patient and wait for the "right-spots" to arise...
Early speed like ill-perceived good form, can often be an illusion of sorts, and I think that the key is to find the legitimate ones who are in
"TRUE" good form with
"BEST" pace-numbers, in order to beat these "illusionists" (false favorites)...That is the combo that I use when looking for the above two-mentioned horses...
For me Early Speed and Position are the "anchors" that I need to ply my knowledge and skills effectively....I know, for me, when the speed is not holding that I often become confused and will not play as much as when I know I have something more concrete and substantial to rely on, and that would be speed....
Early speed can be a "friend or foe", depends on how one uses it, I guess...Some days I love it, and somedays I curse it, especially when I get it wrong..
Lately tho, at the "Big-M", Pocono Downs, and at Chester, it seems that the early speed is not as consistent as usual
(weather as of late, may be the culprit here), but I still get my horses to perform ok....I think that the sharper "drivers" get a sense of what is happening on the day's card and adjust their race tactics accordingly and allow for the change in racing style "bias" for that day...
That is what makes this game so appealing and challenging for me...
best,
