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[Jeff P]

Beyond just the speed figs...

Who's riding?

If there's a rider change, is the new rider better or worse than the previous rider?

How does today's rider stack up vs. the riders of the other runners in the race?

Who's training?

If there's a barn switch, is the new trainer better or worse than the previous trainer?

How does today's trainer stack up vs. the trainers of the other runners in the race?

Is today's surface different from the surfaces of previous running lines? Think beyond the obvious such as turf to dirt, dirt to turf, wet to dry, and dry to wet, etc.

Are any of the horse's previous running lines actually better than they look at first glance because the horse couldn't handle the surface that day? Or raced on the worst part of the surface that day? If so, consider moving that horse up a little if today's surface is different from that of an uglied up previous running line.

Are any of the horse's previous running lines actually worse than they look at first glance because the horse caught an ideal surface that day? Or raced on the best part of the surface that day? If so, consider moving that horse down a little - especially if today's surface is different from that of a previous prettied-up running line.

Same thought process applies to pace scenarios, class, distance, gate draw, good rides, bad rides, good trips, bad trips, workouts, changes in physical appearance, and just about any other thing you can think of, etc.

Experience helps.

So does record keeping.

Imo, record keeping can help you discover not just whether or not someting matters - but the degree to which something matters.

No one thing is a game changer by itself.

But taken collectively, lots of subtle things matter.



-jp

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