Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
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every writer I've ever read on this subject states that this is the correct way to do it is this - or something very similar to this:
9/1 over 11/1_________9*11 +(1) = $108_______for a $1.00 exacta
but isn't it true that a 9/1 shot over a 11/1 shot will usually pay much more in a 12 horse field than a 5 horse field?
I don't recall any of the discussion of this including field size
it would probably be very difficult or maybe even impossible to prepare a matrix which factors in field size
I certainly couldn't do it_________I'm not a mathlete
but, in all the writings I've seen on this subject field size was never mentioned
so, if it's not considered aren't the writings on this, unless they mention or consider field size, lacking?
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It is 108-1 or $109 for $1 not $108. These are based off of
fair value assessment not the actual odds of the horse. The number of runners in a field is already incorporated into you fair line estimation, because you assign an odds line to each horse. So even if you have 3 horses you make 50-1 in the race they still eat up 6% of your odds line and you only have 94%(points) to give to the rest of the runners. Also some might make a fair value place line, because some horses are more apt to run 2nd than win, some horses are feast or famine types......
Of course all of this is theoretical. If you can't make money lining a race and betting horses you make 4-1 when they are 6-1 or higher, you aren't going to start making money because you are playing exactas that should pay $21 based off of your line that are paying $35. The bottom line is you can line races until you are 100 years old and doing so will help you at least isolate "value" plays in your mind from non value plays(which might help to some degree). But it will only make you a winner if you can make a fairly accurate line and that it is much easier said than done. Also exacta prices are subject to the same after the bell adjustments that win prices are so just like that horse you bet at 4-1 that gets hammered to 5/2 after they are off so does that exacta that you rated to pay $8 is paying $12 and ends up paying $6.60.
Regarding your point about exactas paying better in large fields than in small fields, I think that is the nature of the beast. If you have a 20% take on say 110 exacta combinations instead of on 20 it seems pretty logical you will get better payoffs on 11 horses fields instead of 5 horse fields.
