Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
I’m really not sure what the purpose of this entire thread is all about. I mean who really cares about entries getting bet heavily near post time. Even if it were found to be meaningful in some way what could you do about it? Rush to attempt to make a hasty bet (with lots of potential for a costly error)? And then all I’m seeing is chalk. It might be another story if Formula was hitting long shots with some regularity. If you’re after the chalk you’d better have an unusually high hit frequency to realize any substantial profit margin.
I have notice this current racing season (HONG KONG racing) a lot of horses that have gone BROWN or GREEN have certainly produced winning efforts. NITRO has been UNUSUALLY silent on this current trend at HONG KONG.
I won’t deny that entries getting bet down in Hong Kong by 20% (going Green) or by 50% (going Brown) shouldn’t be considered, but more often than not, these entries don’t always win. That’s not to say that they won’t show up some where in the money. The really nice thing about HK betting is that you normally DON’T have to wait to near post time to see these late moves. So the opportunity to advantage of these events is nearly always there.
I’m not sure which threads or posts of mine that Hopbet is viewing because whenever there’s some unusual tote board activity it’s nearly always mentioned when it results in a positive outcome.
Perhaps of some simple links to my recent HK posts and their review will prove me out:
SAT 10-24 : http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=161124
SUN 10-18: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=161026
SUN 10-11: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=160912
SUN 10-4 : http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=160790
Etc., Etc. |
Have to agree with Nitro about heavy late money is almost always too late for us to get or change a bet without it being an error-prone scramble. I'd rather be on a horse, at 2 or 3 MTP, that has shown "unusually" higher than expected money flow. Then when some group hammers another horse into favoritism, my pick stays steady or rises higher in the odds. That late horse will often beat my horse, and as Formula has shown in many examples, they often lose too.
The way you identify higher than expected money flow is the crux of the matter.
