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Old 02-03-2018, 04:23 PM   #2
Poindexter
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,964
Positive expectation is a complex term in racing, unless you have alot of data you have tracked for years than you are sort of guessing and most people have selective memories. Just for clarification all figures below will be your roi which is your net profit(-for loss)/cost of every bet made. Bet $100,00 for the year win $1000 that is a +1% roi.

In simple terms looks start by looking at your straight bets. That is where you have the most activity and the highest probability of winning each bet. Thus lower variance. First question is what determines a win bet for you? Do you look for the best horse and bet him if he is 2-1 and higher. Do you look at the entire board and play the horse who appears to offer the best value. Do you focus more on track biases and profiles and looke for the horse that seems to a likely winner without even worrying about price? Do you make an oddline and look for a certain amount of value(25% premium, 50% premium, double), Maybe you are toteboard player.....It really doesn't matter what you do, the question is how likely is it that next years performance will mirror last years performance and this years performance. If you are looking for 50% value off your line on every bet you make, I would suspect year to year you will fall within a certain range -10%(most will be closer to this figure) to +5% depending on how good you are. If you are losing over 10% on value plays you are doing something very wrong. If you are betting horses blindly because they look good(for whatever reason), I think you can have a big fluctuation year to year, because if you do not take into account their chances of winning (which means you have to figure out their chance of winning) it is hard to determine whether you have value on your play or not. But even so, if you continue with the same methodology year to year, I believe after about 5 years you will have a fairly good idea where you stand with the 5 years worth of data(I am assuming you betting fairly vigorously) The more consistent your performance is year to year likely the more accurate your assessment will be. If you are -5% one year +15% the next, -25% the next year +3% the next year and -12% the next year, who the heck knows. But if you are -3% one year, -7% the next and 5% the next and -3% the next and -4% the next, it is safe to say that your in the -4 to 5% range. Assuming you get rebates do not add them to your win/loss. You koow if you lost 5% on straight bets but get a 3% roi you are net -2%. You need to know what you can do without the rebate. The rebate just tells you whether it is enough to put you over the top.

So basically put your expected return is based off of your past performance. The more you change your approach to handiapping the less predictive it will be. It is not easily discerned, so I get a kick out of anyone who says they are a +7% player(based off of what bets over what period of time etc).

I believe reaching positive expectation in the wps pools sans a rebate is very difficult. Anyone that does it is impressive(and I do not doubt the people do it and are able to do it). While I tend to take people at their word, if somebody claimed they were positive roi, and started emailing me their plays, I would not bet them until over time they demonstrate to be positive roi. That is just a reflection of how tough I think this game is.

When you start getting into the superfecta and super high 5's and pick 4's and pick 5's it is really tough to discern where you are at. This game is full of would of could of and should of's, and when dealing with superexotic, they are often $5000 scores and $15,000 scores and even $30,000 and $50,000 scores you left on the table. What you can do io these is purely subjective and whatever you decide has to be taken with a huge grain of salt.

That is my take on expectation and horse racing.
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