Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Do you remember the "turn-time" concept, that was talked about so much some 20 years ago by some of the "expert" handicapping authors? In case you don't...let me give you a short synopsis:
The fundamental question in pace handicapping is how to compare the horses in a given race when they have differing running styles. Early-speed ratings give a big edge to front-runners, and late-speed ratings give a big edge to closers...and comparing these two running styles remained a mystery that the final-time figures could not really solve. Well...a couple of smart guys decided that the SECOND fraction in a sprint is the one single fraction that could be used to compare these two differing running styles...because BOTH of these types of horses are asked to do some serious running during this portion of a sprint race. The front-runners run strongly during the second fraction of a sprint in order to increase their positional advantage over the rest of the field...whereas the closers run strongly during that part of the sprint so they can get closer to the pace-setters, in order to put their closing kick into effective use. Using the second fraction seemed to be a clever device with which to compare front-runners and closers in a sprint race...and this portion of the race was called "turn-time"...and was the topic of much investigation some years ago. Dick Mitchell also came up with the idea of adding the individual horse's "turn-time" to its half-mile clocking...thus creating the "ability rating" that CincyHorseplayer referenced above.
Why don't you see how Mitchell's "ability time" concept would do in the framework of your own research? You could even try adding the horse's final-time figure to its "ability time"...for a more comprehensive "performance-rating", so to speak.
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Thask...
Let me expand on why I'm trying to do this....
if your not aware, I am big in the Handifast program......
There are about 20 factors that it uses....3 of them are from Mitchell's book
and actually they are pretty good ...but that is ONLY 3 of the 20..
I have learned and worked on logic regression . I have found numerous "insignificant" factors in the program.....
My mission is to somehow improve on them or develop others...
That is why I'm pulling a meeting of the minds here...
Thxs
Mike
P.S.- I understand the Turn Time concept and I'm sure one of those 3 factors are using it.
