Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
Dont understand this...#5
par for E1 is 93
the only horse that can do this is the #1
Can the lack of competion up front make this horse better?
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Mike...do you remember William Quirin? He was the math professor out of NY who originally called early speed the "universal bias". In order to predict which horse would set the early speed in a race, Quirin created some pace figures that were considered very "sophisticated", for that time-period. Well...Quirin came to eventually realize that early-pace ratings don't do a good-enough identifying the pace-setters in a race...so, he invented a more simplistic handicapping device which he called the Quirin "speed points". Even though these "speed points" had nothing to do with "velocity" in any of its forms, it predicted the pace-setters with more accuracy than the more sophisticated pace ratings did...a fact which surprised both Quirin, and myself. Consequently...I wouldn't be so sure about the early-pace advantage that the
has in this race.
