Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
What do you expect the "Early Speed rating" to tell you...who will win the race? When you divide the handicapping process into separate and distinct handicapping factors...then you will often come up with different horses for each factor. The "early speed horse" may be lacking in final-time figures or form/condition; the "class horse" may be lacking in form/condition or final-time figures...and the "form/condition horse" may appear outclassed. In the example race that you have provided, the  appears to have an early-speed edge, but his condition is suspect, IMO...and the race has more early speed than the can tolerate while running his best race.
A horse's early-speed rating on its own cannot tell you anything more than what this horse is capable of during the race's early stages. Whether this horse will last to the wire or not is a question that can only be answered by a more comprehensive handicapping process...of which "early speed" plays only a part. OF COURSE "class" has an effect over a horse's pace-setting tendencies. So does "form/condition"...and the make-up of the rest of the field does also. A confirmed front-runner will outrun the confirmed presser out of the gate...even if the presser shows higher early-speed ratings in his past-performances.
You can start by "tackling the Early speed factor first", as you say...but don't expect the START to show you the END. Handicapping is more troublesome than that. |
Thask.....
I am not trying to win the race with just early speed...I'm trying to develop a meaningful and constructive way of calculating it...
then I will move on to other factors...
Like Head said , I can build a database with those factors and then run it thru a logic regression tool......so far this is the best way I can find to compare and weigh out these factors to a decent performance number.
Mike
