Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
OK Guys...
Lets do some real handicapping here.....
I like to better develop factors pertaining to Handi's program.
First factor I like to tackle is Early Speed......
heres the issue......
Sure you can average E1 of last 2 ,3 ,4 ,whole PP....by dist, surf ...etc and get a rating ....but does that rating tell you anything besides how fast he can run at first call??
take horse #1 at LRL ( attached)
he will have highest E1 avg...but does that mean he can wire them?
Does class have an effect on his performance?
Will/can other horses push him to defeat?
How do you create a meaningful Early Factor rating?
Mike
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What do you expect the "Early Speed rating" to tell you...who will win the race? When you divide the handicapping process into separate and distinct handicapping factors...then you will often come up with different horses for each factor. The "early speed horse" may be lacking in final-time figures or form/condition; the "class horse" may be lacking in form/condition or final-time figures...and the "form/condition horse" may appear outclassed. In the example race that you have provided, the
appears to have an early-speed edge, but his condition is suspect, IMO...and the race has more early speed than the
can tolerate while running his best race.
A horse's early-speed rating on its own cannot tell you anything more than what this horse is capable of during the race's early stages. Whether this horse will last to the wire or not is a question that can only be answered by a more comprehensive handicapping process...of which "early speed" plays only a part. OF COURSE "class" has an effect over a horse's pace-setting tendencies. So does "form/condition"...and the make-up of the rest of the field does also. A confirmed front-runner will outrun the confirmed presser out of the gate...even if the presser shows higher early-speed ratings in his past-performances.
You can start by "tackling the Early speed factor first", as you say...but don't expect the START to show you the END. Handicapping is more troublesome than that.
