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Old 04-20-2018, 10:35 AM   #5
headhawg
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Snarkytown USA
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Great questions, Mike, and likely one of the most important for a software developer -- what factors really work? If you have a large database then you could test things yourself but you would need some knowledge of statistical methods (probably some form of regression) to know if the factor is a real predictor or just some random blip. Statistics is a fascinating topic but it's mostly over my head except in it's most basic forms.

In lieu of that you could use things that others have researched. A good place to start would be Dave Schwartz's Percentages and Probabilities. It's an updated version of Quirin's research from the 70s. I am working on my own software and using some of the things that I learned from P&P as a base. And it's currently on sale. (Dave, you can send me the commission check later. ) P&P is a few years old now but I doubt that the IVs and $Nets have changed substantially. My feeling is that the high IV factors have gotten even stronger but the $Nets have probably decreased somewhat.

And this thread might provide some good ideas to test, and I emphasize test. Some ideas might seem logical and that they will work but won't hold up under scrutiny. And it's not likely that someone will give away their secret factors.

Last edited by headhawg; 04-20-2018 at 10:37 AM.
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