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I tried something approximating difference from the top and got pretty good results, but I think I see a flaw in the approach.
The regression is looking at multiple field values for each horse as input and then the finish position of the horses. So it is more or less trying to maximize the ability to rank all the horses in a race correctly. I'm really only interested in the ability to pick winners. It's not doing that nearly as well as I can do it with weights for each factor that came up with via trial and error.
So I need to somehow stress that the winners are the key.
Perhaps instead of ranking all the horses in each race I could look at just the top 3 finishers????
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