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Personally, I think the ideal pace pattern for a front runner depends somewhat on the distance and surface. At 6F on dirt it will be different than at 10F on dirt or on turf.
At 6F on dirt I would WAY rather see my speed horse run:
slow 2f, fast 2f, finish
than
fast 2f, slow 2f, finish
I am talking here about relative to average and not necessarily the actual times because most dirt races decelerate.
If the speed horse gets away with a slow 1st 1/4 at 6F and then picks it up in the middle (relative to the typical race), all the closers that are trying to make up ground during that fast 2nd 1/4 are both behind him positionally and working a lot harder than him to gain into it (probably wide making it even worse). They either won't be able to get into position to win or will be exhausted from doing it. The front runner essentially turned the race into a 4F sprint where he had the lead.
Just in general, if you are a speed horse you want to make the horses behind you work really hard to get into position to beat you. You don't want to let them into the race on that last turn without working really hard to do it.
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Last edited by classhandicapper; 09-22-2018 at 06:45 PM.
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