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Old 07-02-2018, 03:55 PM   #9
Robert Fischer
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
Value has to come from somewhere significant. It's generally not enough to agree with the public while quibbling about slight odds adjustments here and there. Usually you need to hate one of the public's top contenders or love one of the public's longest shots on the board.

When you have these significant opinions, the first thing that's going to change is the odds rankings (You have a horse ranked 5th most likely that the public has first most likely). You will also develop a feel for what a 2/1 feels like in a certain pattern. Sometimes it simply comes down to understanding why the public is betting, looking at the board and then adjusting for your opinion (They love this horse's last race and have him at 7/5, and while he's the most likely winner, I do not agree with the public about that last race and he feels more like maybe a 2/1 shot that I want to pass here at 7/5).
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