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Hey, cant knock anyone for looking at value, and as you point out there is not too much separating their last race.
Just in terms of handicapping it though I see a few issues for the 3
The 4 is faster than the 3 horse early, shown with the 109 pace figure and the 3 pretty much needs the lead. The 4 also comes from a much more competent barn. Now its a morning line so they may be a tad closer.
Now if these are the only two speeds and somehow the 4 doesnt break then its game on, and if you are getting 5x value maybe that is worth it. I just dont like taking chances on breaks and stuff.
What looks like a much more probably scenario is that 3 and 4 may do each other in, and maybe there is another value horse who is there to capitalize. I dont have the PP for the race and am not playing or would make more of a full analysis.
Greg
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