Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
Horse probably paid way too much, but focusing on a single data point like this will always produce huge prices, sometime, randomly .
It's a form of numerology. 
Now, if you can show a decent sample, where this angle is profitable or at least better than a random takeout loser, we can talk about it. |
I agree with your general point and can't vouch for the flat bet profitability of a large sample of races using any specific numbers, but I can tell you that if a race melts down, some really big longshot closers will often hit the board or light it up to win, especially if they also happened to get a perfect ground saving trip or it was a track that was favoring closers.
The real problem is that first you have to be right about the pace, then the pace has to actually cause a meltdown (sometimes it's fast but does not melt down), and then you have to have the best closer or the closer that got the best trip. That's a lot of "ifs" when you know you are betting an inferior horse that needs everything to go right. That said, it's a good angle when the conditions are just right for a meltdown.
