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[zico20]

Most people won't even look at the race since it is a short field and has a big favorite. One interesting thing I noticed is that Caddo River has only 10 points and really needs a top two finish to make the Derby. One expert predicts he is going to the lead. I disagree! If he guns it and so does Concert Tour then he risks a total collapse and misses making the Derby. If the connections think the only way to win the Derby is going to the front then he might as well stay home as he will get cooked. I think he rates and lets Concert Tour have the lead. I see no other way for him to be in the hunt either Saturday or in three weeks. Baffert holds all the aces. I think he sends Concert Tour right to the front, if they both falter Hozier then is basically assured a Derby spot with any kind of decent effort and Concert Tour is already in the Derby. Also, if a duel develops and Caddo River falls apart that is one less speed horse in the Derby for Concert Tour to deal with. The last thing Baffert wants is Caddo River in the Derby and he has a golden chance to accomplish that. If Caddo River rates and finishes second that will be the strategy in the Derby, allowing Concert Tour a better chance to make the lead in the Derby. So when I hear experts saying Concert Tour is going to track Caddo River it makes no sense Saturday as Baffert is going to do what needs to be done to get Hozier in the Derby and make sure Concert Tour has as little other speed come Derby time. Either way, Concert Tour wins easily Saturday.