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So let me summarize:
(eternally suspicious) people can ascertain that a claim of 92% losses by runners who "broke through the gate" pre-race is minimally significant in light of the perception that nearly 90% of all horses lose.
Yet on a message board where they in large numbers complain about short fields (everywhere), nobody raises an eyebrow at a stat which cites just 118 of 1208 runners who "broke through..." happened to be favorites.
This would all be fine if some environment (outside of Kentucky Downs) could even boast an average field size of 10.00, let alone more, long-term. OR if somebody could accumulate enough data to prove that the vast majority of horses breaking through the gate happened in extremely-large fields. The fact is, that just one lengthy race meeting in America in a recent year reached as many as 9.00 average field size, which would suggest random runners breaking-through being at least 11.11% favorites (and more than that, in all probability, what with sooooooo many tiny fields offset somewhat by the occasional 12-horse group)
If this were merely a measure of favorites breaking poorly, or something, then one could (hypothesize) that the starter was more often staring at the favorite as he pushed the button, aiding the favorite not AS often breaking poorly.
But this is a case of breaking through, and then being reloaded, with plenty of time to (be passed-off as fit to run).
NOT to mention the (greater economic pressure on the favorite being left in the field so as to suit the mutuel department). Offending longshots are more often scratched in those scenarios (than is the betting favorite) and yet fewer than 10% of so-affected runners are favorites (when the bell finally does ring).
Something is wrong with the stats, most probably.
But, hey, maybe everybody but you (once again) was allowed to cancel enough wagering money that those original favorites were supplanted as favorites by the original 2nd-favorite once the original favorite broke through.
Meaning, anytime it was the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd favorite who broke-through, all of the other guys' money came out of the win pool (saving their collective asses) (while yours was left to burn-up on the hapless steed).
Check the data...
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