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Originally Posted by burnsy
And thats the problem with the race. The pace scenario will never be like this derby day. The Wood will most likely be a bust as a prep, just like last year. I'll admit the track was a little slow but derby week some horses will be working faster than this pace went and with the California horses, Arkansas Derby horses and some of the others from Florida and Fair Grounds...you will see these kinds of pace fractions in your dreams (in the derby). I really did not think much of Normandy Invasion and he probably ran the best race yesterday. That field was sort of slow and very unimpressive for a grade 1 million dollar race. Of course they came home faster than the Santa Anita race they walked for 3/4 of a mile! The derby is usually fast EARLY and SLOW late....i don't write the rules, most years thats just the way they run this race. I think all those horses were exposed in a way yesterday and now, Verranzano is "dressed up" and ready to go as another Pletcher chalky derby contender. Not saying he can't win but he has to move way better derby day off of 4 races that "make" him look "invincible". They are going 10 furlongs and you will never, ever see a 25 quarter or a 50 half until the final stages of this race. If you want to be on something that might make you some coin on derby day, this was just the sort of race you wanted yesterday. The big horse wins in a weak event like that and now the world loves him............I noticed people are dissing the california horses again.......those last two preps were run way more "derby like" than this race yesterday was. I'm thinking the winner comes from "other than NY" and i'm a NYRA bettor. I kind of think alot of Orb but he prepped in FLA.
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The pace scenario will absolutely be different on Derby Day. But does that mean that will be a detriment to Verrazano? Of all the horses that will be contending, Verrazano has the highest natural speed. I think they made a mistake by allowing Classhandicapper to cruise along on the lead. From what Verrazano has done in previous races, it is clear that he could have taken the lead or forced a much faster pace and still have had plenty left for the stretch.
I think the final time and the Beyer figure are a result of the slow early pace and I think the slow early pace was not a reflection of the true abilities of the horses involved especially Verrazano.
