Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
There are only 3 possible scenarios here.
1) The crowd makes the subject horse 3rd in the DDs and P3s, notices the discrepancy at post time, and corrects it. Likely hood........ damn near 0%
2) A bettor in the know or a handicapper that has "found a jewel" makes the subject horse 3rd in the DDs and P3s, and then capitalizes additionally on the overlay in the win pool with a $10K to $15K win bet, the amount necessary at SA to move a horse from 13-1 to 5-1 on a high handle Sunday afternoon.
Likely hood.............maybe, maybe, not impossible.
3) Combo of crowd and committed bettors throw this horse into their DDs and P3 combos as a "most likely alternative" to the main contenders, horse gets neglected in the win pool, bot picks up on it. Likely hood............better bet than the other two.
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There is two other implications here:
1) These programs have access to information not available to the general public.
2) They have access to all pools and are betting or canceling after the race has started.
The horse we are talking about was ML 10-1 and ranked 7th in the morning line. But also had a good trainer and jockey combo, a bad ML for sure but not not off by much.
The other race to consider on this is the last race at Gulfstream on Sunday. The two favorites 8, and 9 both went up in odds after the gate opened. They were both the low Double, pick 3-5 favorites. The 9 reared and lost the rider and the 8 stayed close enough to watch the 9. Both have bad breaks and happen to go up in odds.
The late odds swings are common, but are too accurate, and often reflect the break. Meaning, of course, that a horse that breaks bad goes up, and horses that break in order, go down. Don't confuse a good break to mean that a horse gets the lead, it just means that there is not a noticeable problem with the break.
