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Old 01-06-2015, 10:33 PM   #8
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
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Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by Some_One
Isn't there a connection to the energy distribution in a turf race vs dirt race? In 8.5/9f races, isn't there a much different spread and average time in the final fraction times between a dirt vs turf race
Of course, the races are run differently in general, though obviously there are numerous exceptions on all surfaces.

Here is why it matters in regards to speed figures which is what I was discussing. Imagine a speed figure scale where a beaten length counts as 2 points on dirt and turf. Horse A and Horse B both exit 9f races on turf.

Horse A exits a race won with a 100, was beaten 2 lengths. He gets a speed figure of 96

Horse B exits a race won with a 94, and he won the race. His speed figure is a 94.

In this scenario, horse A appears a length faster. But is he? What I am finding is that Horse A actually should have gotten a 92 if you double the value of a beaten length. He is now rated a length slower.

I'm not advocating that this is a better way to do things in every situation, but I think in the majority of the scenarios, it is. More to come in the next few days...
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