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Originally Posted by am1947
LK
FYI , That "ez lead" you refer to for K-Lees Shakenbake on 03/01 R#5 would qualify as a Mark Goldie BPQ qtr.
AM
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AM, I am not sure why or what you are seeing here....I remember the BPQ thing, and that was definitely good food for thought thing, but imo,
that ain't it for me here in this case....Could you refresh my memory...Not trying to pick a fight, but I sure would like your take on this, the BPQ factor...
I know I never finished my "PIP" thing, and I apologize to everyone for not doing so, but for me, K LEES SHAkENBAKE had things pretty much his own way early on in that mile, but the final segment of his PIP is what did him in,imo.....His big mistake was changing his style of racing, from the role of closer to a front runner, I believe....Still with the young lightly raced ones there has to come a time when they crack down further in order to get him the experience that he needs to get him where he may be meant to be, or to find maybe once and for all how good he can "really" go early in his miles...
In this case, the PIP was a 6/023=, and is taken from the splits of 26.3 56.0 124.1 151.0....So you can see that the "back-end" of the mile was the most taxing part of the race...Meaning anytime the PIP shows a "3", especially preceded by a "2 or another 3", well, that is more than reason enough to take notice...And in this case I truly believe that, after his new adventure on the front end, he wasn't capable of that big of a go late in this race....I see this all the time with the young ones...
As a matter of fact, this horse proved that he can really motor off of extremely fast late pace fractions....As, in his last race, after he could only go in 30 seconds, he then rattled off splits of
26.3 27.3 & 26.2 "back to back", and his last 3/4's were run in
120.1 !!!!!....So it wasn't that he can't go fast, but imo, he is a horse that probably can't go fast early and win....Not many horses are capable of surviving those splits and live to tell about it, only the best ones can do that....And, off of those back end fractions in his previous race, I project him to be a solid "A-rated" horse, real soon too,,...Higher than that, we will see ?..
Sometimes, I have found, when a horse goes that quick, as in his previous race with those hairball splits, a horse may "bounce" a wee bit as a result....And, often enough it will show & tell in the following race....For instance a horse may do exactly what Shakeandbake did last nite, and they will change his style, thus giving him an excuse for a loss, or they will scratch him out the following week probably due to lameness whether a big or small amount, or will change tracks for some easier racing until healed up enough to return.....In this case he raced, and he didn't break, which often happens when horses "overpace" in their previous race, but,
"they did" try him on the engine, maybe to keep up appearance, and/or to hold the good form enough, til next race....I think that is the case here, simply put, imo..
Bottom line for me, next week, I don't think that any of these will beat him next outing...
He is at the top of my list of "NOW" horses....
