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Mud calk injury data at NYRA (2001-2008)
I have compiled the following data FROM DIRT races at AQU, BEL, and SARATOGA for the years mentioned above.
I PERSONALLY look at each horse, record the data and have it input into a personal database for my use. I rarely miss a day (unless there is a sale or if we have a horse race out of town, I did take 4 days off to go to the Derby this yr).
On those days, I have a competant person provide the data to me, so the study in my opinion is probably greater than 99% accurate.
I ran through my database, all horse that raced each yr ON THE DIRT, and then ran a query which horse DNF. This of course is a crude "worse case scenario" since probably 65% of DNF horses lose their jocks, clip heels, etc.
But this can be "fine tuned" by running another query as to the NEXT time each of these horses started their very next race.
Obviously, if a horse who DNF started back in 60 days or less, it was not seriously injured.
Here are the findings:
Total Dirt starters 2001-2008 (thru AUG) 109,433
Total Plain shod.....................................83.2%
Total wearing Mud calks..........................16.8%
Total DNF .............................................1115 (1.02%)
Total plain shod ..................................967 (1.06%)
Total DNF w/ mud calks .............................148 (0.81%)
Here is a breakdown by year.. (note how as years progressed, the number of horse wearing calks increased, but not the % DNF)
2008 thru aug total dirt..........................8541
total plain shod ...................................6379 (74.7%)
total calks...........................................21 62 (25.3%)
Total DNF .............................................74 (.87%)
Tot DNF plain .......................................53 (.83%)
Tot DNF wear calks ............................21 (.97%)
Plain shod DNF that did NOT race again........21 (.40%)
Mud calks DNF that did NOT race again ........7 (.31%)
2007 Mud calk data:
Total Dirt starters...................................12,442
Total plain shod .......................................9398 (75.5%)
Total mud calks ......................................3044 (24.5%)
Total DNF ................................................13 1 (1.05%)
Total DNF plain shod ...................................108 (1.12%)
Total DNF mud calks ................................... 23 (0.76%)
Of the 108 DNF plain shod to race again ...........50 (0.62%)
Of the 23 DNF with calks to race again ..........12 (0.39%)
(as you can see in 2007, a horse wearing calks that DNF is 40% more likely to have an injury where they have not returned to racing.)
2006 data
Total dirt starters .....................................14,225
total plain shod .........................................11,209 (78.8%)
total wearing calks .......................................3016 (21.2%)
Total DNF .................................................. ..116 (1.17%)
Total DNF plain shod ........................................135 (1.2%)
Total dnf mud calks ..........................................31 (1.03%)
In 2006 of the 31 DNF wearing calks.. 13 did not return racing ... (0.41%)
I am going to skip the other years but include 2001.. the results are VERY similar.
2001 data.......
Total Dirt starters ..............................................14,5 23
Total plain shod ................................................13 ,405 (92.3%)
Total wearing calks ........................................... 1118 ( 7.7%)
Total DNF .................................................. .........196 (1.35%)
Total DNF plain shod ..............................................187 (1.4%)
Total DNF wearing calks ............................................9 (0.81%)
As you can clearly see, as years have past since 2001 mud calk use has risen dramatically, yet, stats clearly show NO increase in DNF's and when those DNF's are investigated, the numbers show even more significantly, that calks not only pose no additional danger, but could be considered SAFER statistcally then plain shod horses.
Tomorrow evening I will post the HIDDEN AGENDA behind this entire rule change and clearly show the players involved and their personal reasons for implementing these new ridiculaous rules.
In the actual study I provided numerous trainers with, (which has been forwarded to Charlie Haywood), I included names of EVERY horse that DNF'd the last 3 years and commented on each of those including providing that horses next race date (if they returned to the races) and subsequent shoe information.
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