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Recession/Depression
I'm not seeing some of the crucial signs of a recession or worse, a depression. That sign is unemployment. Everywhere we go, in our town(city) I'm seeing signs practically begging people to work for them. When did you ever hear of companies paying bonuses, just to come to work for them in entry-level jobs? After 10+ years of a bull market, tracking sideways for a year or three will feel like a recession.
Remember, the UE rate during the depression reached 25% of the workforce. I don't know how much the govt monkeyed with the actual rate back then. We supposedly hit 13% UE at the peak of the pandemic, but govt handouts didn't help that number.
The housing market is up, and the home builders are still bullish. Gold and silver are stuck in a trough, and those two things make no sense (to me) that we're in a recession, or going into one.
I said a couple of years back that the stock market is a leading indicator of the economy, and that doesn't look too healthy at the moment. But we really needed it to reset to more realistic expectations on earnings. Or maybe I'm just too optimistic in my outlook.
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