Quote:
Originally Posted by wiretowire68
The only two trainers to me that are the most consistent in FTS are usually Baffert or Cox and I guess you can throw Pletcher in at times. It is an interesting idea to use the percentage as score in terms of top percentile of the actual work itself. I have always been a huge believer in 5 Furlong works mixed with 4 Furlong works with either having a bullet or a 101. in change. I used to believe in gate works no matter the work but have slowly learned that sometimes gate works are because the FTS is having issues learning how to load or the trainer believes on "on the job training: and just letting him go.
I appreciate the feedback.. I have experimented in the strt to the 1st call in sprints. And 1st-Call to 2nd Call in routes when it comes to percentages because I generally will take jockey win % for the season with their percentage at either either at sprints and or routes dirt or turf. Generally, though in my constant analysis the ranking I end up with does not have a huge affect as it still ends up speed/class/pace.
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I cannot take credit for the workout method that I presented above. It came from a book by Barry Meadow from a few years ago called The Skeptical Handicapper. By the way, these workout standards apply not merely to first timers, but to any horse really. He also provided a recency stipulation as well, that being the workout in question must have taken place within the last 21 days. I also like a method first laid out by James Quinn concerning firsters. Namely that horse must have at least two of the following prerequisites to qualify for a wager: Firstly that the trainer have at least a 12% success rate with firsters. Secondly that the sire must have at least a 12% success rate with firsters. And thirdly that the horses works must be good. I forget his exact parameters for a good work but I have largely substituted the Meadow parameters described above. A horse qualifying on all three parameters obviously deserves strong consideration. Those qualifying on two of the three can be backed at 8:1 or higher. Only one qualifying paramater illicits a pass. Of course with the tote being what it is these days, having any sort of pre-race odds requirement is a very iffy proposition.
