Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
These days, I think the goal should probably be to try to focus on smaller and mid sized tracks. I don't have data to support this, but when I play stakes I feel like I can find live horses at way better prices at the non major tracks on both coasts.
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Ironically, these will be the most difficult races to profit from because the
pool competition will be highest.
Higher takeouts generally result in higher rebates.
Higher rebates typically make the track more appealing to whales.
Therefore, a greater percentage of pool money will be wagered at a small track compared to a large track. My math consultant and I worked together on this and came up with a huge difference.
The estimates were that the highest "rebate differential" tracks (such as MNR, CT, PRM, etc) would result in almost 35% of the pool being comprised of whale money.
Meanwhile, the lower-rebate tracks (SA, BEL, etc.) would be more likely in a range of 4% to 8%.
An apt metaphor would be a poker room with two tables. Both tables have the same rules.
Table A:
Lower Net Rake
3.5 world class players.
Table B
Higher net rake
1 world class player
Table B is likely to be the easier table to beat.
