Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I don't believe what horseplayers say. If "many bettors perform so well at some tracks"...then they would sooner or later realize that the prudent thing to do is to restrict their play to those tracks...and they would increase their wagers at those tracks instead of betting money at the tracks where they lose. When horseplayers say that they favor certain tracks...what I think they mean is that they lose less at those tracks than they do at others...an assertion which may still be an exaggeration given the record keeping habits of the great majority of the horseplayers.
I have a friend who says that he has a sure-fire system for beating baccarat...but I see him continuously throw his money away at blackjack and craps. And then he gets mad at me when I question his baccarat skills.  |
it's a tough racket
tracks can have some fundamental differences.
- players (the culture, the teams, whales)
- the horse population within a circuit (familiar vs. shippers)
- the type of class / purse
- turf racing? turf sprints?
- the level of information available
- the wageering menu
- your personal familiarity with the track/circuit/etc...
- voodoo
Quote:
Originally Posted by Augenj
My guess is that each track has its own "ecosystem" with surfaces, jockey/trainer colonies, climate, and more. I know that my THA computer parameters are wildly different between tracks. If I take one track doing well and use its parameters at another track, it will underperform.
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first, you have to confirm that you really do see better results at one track or another, and that it's not just bias and sample-size of a big hit, bad beat, or doing something dumb like chasing loses or going on tilt.
An example may be a certain angle that you use. You understand the angle, and you find a horse that is mispriced on the morning line and the narrative, so you have your betting ideas, and you get to the race and find that he's 3rd choice in Pick-3 , and co-fav in DD, and the ml chalk opened up cold on the board etc...
You do this several times, and note that a specific circuit generally catches a certain angle, and you say "hey, Woodbine has some sharp horseplayers" or whatever, and make sure to look out for that, and maybe have Belmont and Keeneland on deck, or even dive into them...
ultimately, you want to be playing good prices, and not married to an opinion from your first glance at a race... So, you want the odds to determine your play, and you ideally you'd find 'less plays' at some circuits, rather than slumps and streaks...
