Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
None of that changes the fact you are paying over 40% takeout in the example I gave on the parlay. If bettors want to bet against that, go for it, but there is nothing wrong with shedding a little light on the reality of the bet. It isn't all party balloons and confetti.
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Cj, I am going to jump out on a limb and assume you a winning player. That means to me that over time, when CJ has a prime bet, it will have a positive expectation. So the takeout this is a non issue, because you have the skill set to overcome the take. I am also going to guess that your prime bets come to the tune of one or 2 per track per day at most. So you rarely have the option of coupling them in a double or covering 2/3rds of a pick 3 with them.
I am going to go out on another limb and say that on the rest of the races (races you have no feel for or you see no value in) you are going to have an roi of over -10% maybe closer to -20%. You are good, but if the public has it right, there isn't much you can do to overcome the track takeout.
So you gave an example of a pick 3. Pick 3 takeout is 23.68%. The WPS takeout is 15.47%. So based off of your theory the pick 3 is superior because of the one takeout vs a takeout in each race. So if you parlayed $2.00 on negative 15.3% horse your expected return on a parlay is $120.96 for $2.00 while the return on a pick 3 $176.32(a 45% premium for connecting them in the pick 3) if you singled all 3 in a pick 3. That is all correct, but you can't look at it that way. However,
you know over time that
your prime bets are going to be at worst break even. Let's assume that by narrowing down the other 2 legs of the pick 3 you can get those 2 legs to -15% each (you are better than the crowd but if there is no value or you have a poor handle on the races your expertise will only get you so far). So you key one of your prime bets with spreads in 2 random races and your return will be 1*.85*.85*1.42 or 1.047 or about a 5% premium with he pick 3 over the breakeven prime bet parlay. Each player has to analyze his situation and see what would work better for him/her. So yes you do a little better with the pick 3 if you can reduce the track take some in the latter 2 legs but it is not a huge difference. That is the point I am trying to convey. Also I have not studied pick 3 payouts, but I would be highy
shocked if pick 3 payouts with obvious horses offerred anywhere close to a 45% premium on a 3 horse parlay. I believe all the multi pick wager payouts are skewed much lower on the obvious. Just the way people play, singles, 2x3x4, 3x3x3 or 4x4x4 cold decking........
So in theory I get what you are saying, "why parlay 3 horses when there is a pick 3 that offers one takeout and 45% premium because of that" but in the reality of racing that decision is not nearly as obvious as you believe it is.