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Originally Posted by bobphilo
His improving figures and performances indicate he is turning it around.
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No doubt he has improved in his last 3 starts, but when tempered by the reality that he has not throttled his early speed sufficiently to allow for a strong finish, when it's all said and done, his best has not been good enough. Furthermore, the Jockey Club Gold Cup may be representative of his peak and there's no guarantee (or indication) that he has more room to improve.
Nevertheless, he's a brave horse as he offered some resistance to both Catholic Boy and Thunder Snow in his last two before ultimately wilting in the final furlong. I would anticipate a 1994 Bertrando BC Classic effort...a 1993 Bertrando BC Classic at best...
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You can't just look at the stretch run in a vacuum in isolation of what preceded it.
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Considering that I highlighted a pattern in Mendelssohn's running lines over multiple races, it should go without saying that I was taking nothing in a vacuum. If Mendelssohn keeps running--to his disadvantage--into fast paces in all his races than that simply means either (a) he's too fast too early for his own good or (b) the nature of top class dirt racing is to see fast early paces. There's no evidence that we should expect a monumental change in style or conditions in the BC Classic.
Furthermore, its a bit hyperbolic to say Mendelssohn was attending the pace. Ryan Moore wisely checked his mount in the first quarter once it was apparent that the dunderhead riding Diversify was going to impersonate a nighttime jockey at Los Alamitos. If Moore made a mistake, it was going all in at the 1/2 mile pole--way too early to hope that he had a prayer in the stretch.
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The further you are from a nuclear blast, the better your chances of surviving it.
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That's probably what the jockey on Thunder Snow--also blessed with natural early speed--was thinking during the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and it proved to be the right move. Whereas Mendelssohn has yet to show the ability to rate (on dirt), Thunder Snow showed some additional versatility in the JCGC that makes him a much better win candidate in the BC Classic.
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Put a line through Mendelssohn's Derby non-race and he is also on his 3rd race off the lay-off.
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The Jockey Club Gold Cup would have been his 3rd off the layoff in that instance. Which supports the notion that we might have seen his best in that race, which probably isn't good enough to win the BC Classic.
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The reason Thunder Snow ran as well as he did in the JVGC was that he lay back off that pace and closed on horses that had run killer sprint fractions.
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Either Thunder Snow has a better jockey or more versatility or both...none which should be construed as points against him as far as winning the BC Classic.
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Had he played the setter/presser role he would have tired badly - much worse than Mendy or Diversify.
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What's the evidence for this? He ran faster than Mendelssohn in Dubai against much better company.
