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Originally Posted by Spalding No!
From 2 to 3, Sky Beauty's career was fairly similar to Songbird's. Undefeated at 2 and (nearly) unbeatable at 3 while facing a fairly light 3yo filly crop. Beyond a pair of good but limited/inconsistent Phipps fillies (Dispute and Educated Risk), Sky Beauty pretty much strolled through the season while putting up modest speed figures for the most part. When she faced older horses for the first time in the BC Distaff she was beaten with no excuses (beyond shipping to CA).
The difference between Sky Beauty and Songbird appears at this point to be that Sky Beauty improved from age 3 to 4 averaging 105+ Beyers throughout the year before another meltdown in the Distaff. She only regressed as a 5yo or came undone.
People are saying Songbird has lost a step, but at this point I'd simply say she is the same filly as last year, which means she was never going to be fast enough for an older horse campaign if there was decent talent in the division.
Certainly there are some things possibly holding her back. She took 8 months to return to the races, which no matter what was reported in the press (minor leg injury in stall) suggests quite a lot of wear-and-tear from the previous campaign. In comparison, Hollendorfer's other 3yo champion filly Blind Luck ran as early as mid-January in her 4yo year. There is also something to be said for racing 10f in her second start (never mind shipping for both of those races). As I recall, her Alabama last year was perhaps her most uninspiring run of the season, more workman-like than spectacular.
As some horses seem to show marked improvement in their third start off a layoff I suppose Songbird deserves another chance before she's written off as not making the jump from 3 to 4. However, considering the above its probably just as likely that she goes backwards in her next start.
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Isnt the real difference that physically when Sky Beauty shipped, and I am guessing in a plane not by van, that she fell apart? Both of her BC starts she had lost weight and was not the same horse.
