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Gun Runner is actually a good choice for comparison because to some extent, he also might be considered overrated.
Here is a horse who has failed in literally every single major test he's been in (the KY JC at 2, the KY Derby/Haskell/Travers/BC at 3, and the DWC at 4). Although you might say he "stays" 10f based on the DWC (ignoring that Arrogate--who thrashed him by 15 lengths in the 10f Travers--spotted the field 5 lengths or so at the start), in the end he has done nothing but losing ground in the stretch in all his 10f starts. He didn't win a Grade 1 until after last year's BC and his second Grade 1 score in the Foster came against some of the same horses he beat in the Grade 3 Razorback and Clark.
I'm not convinced he could handle Collected.
The good news is there is only two more 10f Grade 1s of consequence the rest of the year outside the BC (Pacific Classic and JCGC) and he probably won't start in either so his overinflated reputation will be secure if he holds on for second in Arrogate's open lengths victory in this year's BC Classic.
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