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Old 05-01-2007, 08:54 PM   #45
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 605
Originally Posted by DanG
I’m going to evaluate Curlin like I evaluate any gamble. For the record after his GP MSW win I wrote in my notes “Gr-1 ability”. I also made a mental note that if they try to compress a 90+ day run for the roses into him it will be a major challenge. I would believe this if 10 Derby winners had never raced at two…

I can’t let this one statement pass in good conscious. Curlin is a very talented horse, but at the same age he couldn’t hold Smarty’s bed pan IMO. Smarty Jones Rebel stakes was SO much faster than the majority of figure services reported it. The Beyer was off by a good 10%. Unlike many “hyped” horses, Smarty was actually underrated IMO.

that's not a very valid argument either becuase to make that assumption, you have to assume that Curlin exerted all the effort he possibly could have to come with that Beyer speed figure, which e didn't. The truth is, no one knows what curlin is capable of... Yes, given the race I saw, it was about a second and a half slower then Smarty Jones.. but smarty Jones is a horse that likes the lead and Curlin is a stalking type of horse. you handicap on ability not numbers
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