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Old 05-01-2007, 05:58 PM   #35
Bruddah
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Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Mississippi
Posts: 2,277
My guess is

Quote:
Originally Posted by uncbossfan
Looks like the Derby fav has won 50 of the 132 runnings or almost 38%, but only 2 of those have been since '79...

So for the last 26 runnings, the fav is winning at a 7% clip, and the 106 yrs before that, it was at 45%

Why do you think the sudden change occured?? Was there any new introductions to the handicapping world around that time that has swayed bettors opinions? More horses capable of winning, or shoudl I say less horses capable of pulling off the Derby as much as they are babied sometimes... curiosu to your thoughts.
The size of the Derby field increased to 20 participants, since 1979. Makes it a much more difficult assignment, for the favorite. Also, the best horse doesn't always win i.e Afleet Alex. (JMHO)

Last edited by Bruddah; 05-01-2007 at 05:59 PM.
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