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Old 10-26-2017, 07:53 AM   #26
FakeNameChanged
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Join Date: Jan 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
Belmont Race #6: 10/26/17


Cordero 6-1 Will be forwardly placed because of post position and running style. Recent claim by Cox and the cut back in distance give hope. Pretender.

Djulpan 12-1 Maker and Ortiz should take some money. Last time Ortiz was on was close to the pace. Needs more class relief. Toss.

Sallisaw(MTO)7-2

War Stroll 7-2 Have to respect on the class drop and his last race might win this. Notice a long break in the works and is a concern. His good speed figures have been earned against better, but am a little wary. Contender.

Outragous Bet 20-1 3 yr old set career high speed figure 2 back. Saw State bred Allowance in his last and showed the effects of the race before. Now gets a little class relief, has 3 sharp works, and as a 3 yr old late in the fall is set to run another career best. My pick.

Camp Courage 5-1 Has seen the best races and figures in this race. But the obvious physical issues are a concern. Contender.

Lone Trader 12-1 His speed figures say he is a contender, and a Ortiz in the saddle adds to that illusion. Besides the has had the most chances to get his 3rd win. Toss.

Snake Oil Charlie 50-1 Never Mind.

Tiz A Chance 10-1 Since the claim has run figures that can win this race. But the lack of works and the jockey make me a non-believer. Toss.

Performance Bonus 3-1 Brown on the turf, with Castellano. The "please claim me horse" will take money and might surprise and win this, but I doubt it. Pretender.

Any Questions 12-1 The drop in class figures for this horse and might be what he needs. Not to thrilled with the trainer and jockey, but they have won together. On the fence here, but under perfect conditions could surprise. Let the odds make the decision, if under 12-1, consider.

Abbot 8-1 Was the favorite in last and at 8-1 here with the Rosario in the saddle is a solid choice. Contender.

If race is not on turf, will change.
Jay, Good analysis, I'm liking your pick on To eliminate any confusion (mine), I've not consulted Bris numbers on this race. I broke it down into three parts, early , late and final speed abilities. So the contenders on my scorecard look like this:
Early: 5-9-12-10
Late: 11-7-2/9 (of course 11 did that with some of the slower early fracts)
Final: 5 - 9 - 7-10
So my simple scorecard tally is: gets 3/3 but no 1st; gets 2/3 both 1sts; & & get 2/3 but both in lower positions. With two #1's I will go with these on the turf:
Outrageous Bid 20-1 ML? (Jay's pick) Tiz A Chance 10-1 ML
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