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I don't know what to make of Materiality, but Upstart to me is a complete toss. Horses need to have everything go basically perfect on the road to the Derby, and getting sick three weeks out and missing a work is the kiss of death.
Frosted seems like a live horse, and we know Kiaran can get a horse to peak on Derby Day, like Closing Argument did at 71-1 in 2005.
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