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I don’t believe that Benter used this type of approach when he introduced the public odds into his algorithm. He thought that the most significant upgrade to his algorithm was when the Hong Kong Jockey Club made their betting odds available to the public. The information provided was a game-changer because he no longer had to calculate the odds from scratch. All he needed to do was refine the odds offered by the club. This change brought him $3 million during the next year.
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We all know what he said, but that doesn't quite explain what the underlying value advantage of doing it that way was.
On one level it's an admission that no one has ALL accurate relevant information and handicapping insights. There may be significant things built into the prices that are not in your model no matter how brilliant and informed you are. It could be other handicappers using different information or with insights your don't have, connections, clockers or other insiders etc...
What it sounds like he was doing was starting with the public odds and then tweaking them to reflect factors his research indicated were overrated or underrated by the public.
That sounds a lot like what a lot of serious players do now without a computer model.
ex
I have a horse that was on a dead rail at AQU in his last start. The time before that he got bumped just after the start, dropped back to last, but drew no comment in the chart. Today he's shipping to FG where it's less likely anyone is going to know about those trips.
If that's the case, I am not overly interested in making an exact odds line because I think I have information that won't be reflected in the public odds properly. If they make him 3-1 in that field, he's probably worth 2-1. If they make him 8-1 he's probably worth 5-1 and so on.
Benter probably just studied many factors carefully looking for value oriented insights and was weighing them all via computer better than a person can. Other than that, I still don't understand the advantage of incorporating the odds into your own line.
