Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I bet only when I think that the favorite will lose...because I know that if the favorite loses, then no matter which of the other horses I happen to bet on, I can't help but place myself in a long-term profitable wagering situation. And I know this because Dick Mitchell told me so.  |
I think that's by far the best approach to finding value except for one.
Occasionally, you find a race where you think the favorite is "suspect" and you also have a horse (or even 2) you think are better than they look on paper and would probably represent value on their own even if there wasn't an overbet favorite in the race.
Either one of those conditions alone gets you into the ballpark or perhaps puts you over the top depending on how good you are at identifying flawed and underappreciated horses, but if you have both in the same race it gets harder to be "that" wrong on both sides of the play even with our own occasional mistakes and misunderstandings. Unfortunately, those races don't grow on trees,
