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Originally Posted by acorn54
can someone please explain the logic of betting vertical exotics such as the pick 3 or pick 4. i can understand the pick six, as hitting that is a life changer and is like winning the lottery.
all the readings of intelligent writers who have studied the gambling side of racing, come across as saying, if you don't have a positive expectancy with the win bets you make, you will not have a positive expectancy with any other type of wager you make.
am i missing something, because with the low payoffs in the win spot after take out AND DIME BREAKAGE there is no way i come out ahead, whereas with my long shot plays, betting into large fields i have much more success.
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The most successful handicappers I know play horizontals as a group and have a complex layering method. They make serious money.
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Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire.
Likewise with randomness, uncertainty, chaos: you want to use them, not hide from them. You want to be fire and wish for wind. -- Antifragile, Nassim Taleb
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