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Old 09-07-2010, 05:51 PM   #115
highnote
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thoughts...

This thread is like rubber necking while driving past a car accident -- for some reason it is hard not to look.

So as long as I'm looking I may as well share my thoughts.

CA racing powers felt they had to put more money into horseman's pockets in order to keep up the racing population (among other reasons). They figured the easiest way is to tax the horseplayer. And they're right that they will get more money -- in the short term. Racetracks are in crisis and need some serious intervention. Rate hikes are only a short term solution. Increasing business takes hard work and some seriously creative solutions. It's much easier just to take more money from current bettors than it is to come up with innovative ways to find new bettors.

In the short term the horsemen and tracks and maybe even the state of CA will put more money in their pockets. In the longer term there will be less money because horseplayers will wash out quicker. So those marginal players will lose their betting wealth at the expense of horseman et al increasing their wealth.

My second thought is that anyone who is talking about boycotting or is trying to organize a boycott is wasting their time because not enough people are going to boycott. I'd would love it if horseplayers prove me wrong! And I'll be the first to admit I was wrong!!

On the other hand, if people enjoy talking about boycotting here on PA, but are not really serious about it, then it is not a waste of time. It's entertainment.

Try this... go to the racetrack and look around at all the people. Now, try to figure out a strategy to get all those people to NOT bet. The probability of getting enough of them to NOT bet so as to pressure CA tracks to lower takeout is so small as to be zero. Again, I hope I'm wrong, but my money is on an effective boycott by the betting masses never happening.

Third, a boycott probably isn't necessary because so many horseplayers will be washing out due to the takeout increase. They probably won't come back. If you really want a boycott then just be patient. It's slowly happening at this very moment.

Fourth, the one strategy that might work is to get some whales to stop betting. If a whale is presented with a good enough sales pitch they might boycott. It might be a hard sell, but it might depend on the whale. This could go either way.

Fifth, my favorite idea (my favorite pipe dream?) is to get a bunch of horseplayers together to start their own racing association, sell stock to raise money and buy or start their own track and then run it any way they see fit. It can be non-profit with the profits going to pay back investors. I believe non-profits are allowed to borrow money? However, even though it is a pipe dream, it sure would be fun if it could happen.

A man like Ron Geary bought Ellis Park. So it can be done. I don't see any reason that a group of determined horseplayers couldn't join forces and purchase a racetrack.

My handicapping says it is more likely that a group of horseplayers could buy their own track than it is that a group of horseplayers could convince a large number of bettors to boycott.

Just my two cents. As usual, probably not worth half that. In fact, if you read this far, I may owe you money!
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