|
IMHO, save yourself some time and agg. by relying on the published number of reliable sources, such as Beyer, et. al.
Reason: Track variants are far too complex to be accurate anyway. They rely partially on the momentary condition of the track which is affected by weather, wind and track-maintenence procedures, all of which can change during a card. But more importantly, raw times are affected by the pace, speed matchups, inside-outside biases, etc. This is why Beyer winds up using projection numbers so often- the raw times just don't make sense a lot of the time.
And so a speed fig is and will always be an imperfect tool and should be viewed as such. Moreover, there was a time some years back when the blind faith in fig superiority allowed for some advantage in betting against the spurious high-fig horse. But the crowd these days is hip. They've learned not to fall into this trap.
In short, rather than try to "out-fig" the fig makers, you might be better off spending you valuable time and great energy in seeking other means and areas of profit opportunity.
|
