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Originally Posted by Spalding No!
I don't know if I buy that "he had more in reserve" theory in his wins when he conveniently didn't display any extra reserve when facing higher quality rivals.
Looking back at his overall record, where his true form may have been blunted was in his last 2 starts. What were they thinking putting blinkers on that horse? That was a terrible decision.
As you suggest, his best weapon was his turn of foot (and his apparent ability to overcome his rider's wasteful wide sweeps when uncorking it). Did they really think the absence of blinkers is what led to Maxfield getting his head ripped off by Knicks Go?
I'd say the presence of blinkers is what led to Maxfield getting his head ripped off by Art Collector in the Woodward. Now instead of having a horse that always broke sharp, settled nicely midpack, responded push-button, and accelerated on the turn while traveling wide, they got a horse that would not settle, a rider with his feet on the dashboard down the backstretch, getting shuffled back around the turn when the push-button response did not materialize, before toiling with a struggling 2nd tier colt (Dr. Post) down the lane to save the place. Great job connections. Just made Art Collector look like a contender in the BC Classic (where'd he finish?)
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IMO the “more in reserve” view of racing is wildly misunderstood.
Most people look at the end of the race to determine whether the horse was all out or won easily. That’s not what I am talking about.
Most horses that win very easily are horses that got great trips or that totally overmatched a much weaker field. Some of those are legitimately capable of running faster, but many of those will actually run slower with a tougher trip or move up in class. A horse’s overall record and figures against quality horses can sometimes be a clue as to what you are dealing with, but with very lightly raced horses it’s tougher (at least for me).
What I am talking about is horses that just put themselves into position to win and then typically get the job done or run really well driving at the end.
IMO, horses like that can sometimes get into position to win even if the pace is a little faster and still finish close to as well. In either case they are driving to the finish, but the final time varies a little by how fast they ran early to get into position. Cheaper horses will slow down if worked harder. Quality horses with some energy in reserve are capable of running a couple of ticks faster until you break their limit.
I’m an Art Collector fan. I was glad he recovered his form this year and moved forward, but I hated him in the Classic. I didn’t see any scenario where he could chase a much faster speed like Knicks Go, put him away, and navigate 10F. He was the first horse I tossed even though I bet him in the prior win. But I still think he’s pretty good. It was just a terrible spot.
