Sidebar

[Blenheim]

Alternative thinking is always good - keeps things interesting. One thing to pick a horse, another thing altogether to consider why the horse won or lost.
~
I've always thought weight an important factor in the outcome of races and posted such the latter part of the 2011 Trail. Excellent you've seen weight as a factor early along this Trail. As redshift1 wrote, "it can be directly measured in the next 8 weeks." At the least, when I now review the data, I'll see the weight next time I look.

FYI, here is a quote from Ainslie's Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing

4. For most horses, 120 pounds is the beginning of difficulty at any distance. Except for young, sharp animals of allowance quality or better, no horse should be granted ability to carry 120 or more unless (a) it has already done so with aplomb in a race of today's distance or longer, or (b) it has run a powerful, reasonably recent race at the distance or longer, under 118 or more.
5. In races at a mile or longer, weights in excess of 120 pounds become most burdensome. A horse entered in a race of that kind under such an impost can be backed with confidence only if (a) it has demonstrated its ability to tote the load, (b) it is in superb form and does not come to the race off a recent tough effort under similar high poundage, and (c) no other fit animal of equal class has a weight advantage of five pounds or more.
~
redshift1,

You really didn't get into the why of the outcome of the RBLewis. You wrote, "my feeling is he [Liaison] was not going to win the race no matter what the weight discrepancy." Why wasn't he going to win the race no matter what? What about the SFDavis?
~
Can't believe El Padrino is going off at 20/1; 28/1 Wynn. I read he is goin' next in the Risen Star against Mr. Bowling and Z Dager. Lookin' forward to that one!

Nothin' Like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the next one.