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Hello PA people, and thanks to Replay Randall for sending me a note about this thread.
The 445-page Skeptical Handicapper not includes dozens of computer studies (the vast majority by Ken Massa of HTR) on many handicapping topics, but also my views on various handicapping methods and topics based on my more than twenty years of playing full-time. I believe that many of the results will prove surprising to many players. Just a few:
Looking at more than 44,000 favorites, those ridden by jockeys with more than 20% wins performed just about identically vs. jockeys with fewer than 10% wins.
Are first-time starters intimidated by starting from the rail? Not according to the results we found.
In every category, no matter how far the class drop vs. a class raise, droppers recorded an ROI more than 5% better than risers.
Old-time handicapping angles such as best last-race speed figure, earnings per start calculations, and form-consistency ratings have been thoroughly analyzed by the crowd and won't get the money in 2019.
I think that experienced players will get much more out of the book than beginners. For instance, I explain how to watch replays correctly (looking for trouble is a waste of time), how to find vulnerable favorites and live longshots, and which questions to consider in different types of races. But it's no fast read or get-rich-quick book.
The book is scheduled to be shipped March 21, and I'll be happy to autograph the book for anyone ordering through my website, trpublishing.com. You can read a copy of the Introduction there, or look at early chapters on the Amazon site if you have a free Kindle Cloud Reader.
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Barry Meadow
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