Quote:
Originally Posted by Wizard of Odds
I'd just like to point out that if your long term win ROI were .83 and your long term 'across the board' ROI were .94, then your optimal betting strategy (aside from, perhaps, not betting) would be to bet only Place and Show where you would be around break-even. However, I think this scenario is unlikely. If this were true, then you want to look at the ROI for the Place and Show slots separately.
Another consideration is that the Place and (especially) Show pools have much less money in them than the Win pool. Each dollar you bet in the Place and Show pool has has a greater chance of lowering the payout price. For example, $200 bet to Show in a Turf Paradise race might lower the payout from $3.00 to $2.80. This effect alone would lower the expected future ROI from what you might have seen from your long-term historical studies when you actually tried to make money from your ideas.
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Hey Wiz
Give me a few days time to come up with this
